Trump’s Airstrikes on Iran Leave Oil Market Poised for Surge

The global oil market is bracing for a sharp price surge following U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, as investors react to the risk of prolonged instability in the Middle East—home to a significant portion of the world’s crude supply. After U.S. forces launched coordinated strikes on Iran’s Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites on Friday night, Brent crude prices immediately jumped over 5% in after-hours trading, crossing $92 per barrel—the highest level in over a year. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) followed closely, indicating a widespread market reaction driven by geopolitical fears. “This is exactly the kind of supply shock risk the market dreads,” said energy analyst Rachel Lin of Eurasia Futures. “Any escalation involving Iran—especially near the Strait of Hormuz—raises the possibility of global supply disruption.” Middle East Risk Premium Returns The attacks mark the most direct U.S. military involvement against Iran in recent years and have reintroduced a “Middle East risk premium” that had largely faded from oil markets over the past two years. Nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that could be disrupted if Iran retaliates militarily. While Iranian officials have downplayed immediate damage to oil infrastructure, they have also hinted at “strategic responses” if Western aggression continues. This uncertainty is fueling speculative buying and hedging among traders. Market Reactions Oil Futures: Brent crude surged +5.3%, WTI +4.8% Energy Stocks: ExxonMobil, Chevron, and other majors posted gains Safe-Haven Assets: Gold, U.S. Treasury bonds, and the U.S. dollar all saw increased demand Investors are now watching for signs of potential Iranian retaliation, including missile strikes on regional oil infrastructure or shipping lanes—events that could push oil toward the $100 threshold. Broader Economic Implications The oil price spike comes at a delicate time for global inflation. Central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, are closely monitoring commodity prices as part of their monetary policy outlook. “Any sustained oil shock could reverse recent disinflationary progress,” warned economist Daniel Romero of CitiGroup. “Especially in energy-importing nations.”

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